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    20年炒股经验来谈牛市一篇好文

    2020-05-27 0条评论


    对[dui]于[yu]没[mei]有[you]中[zhong]国[guo]牛[niu]市[shi]经[jing]验[yan]的[de]人[ren]来[lai]说[shuo],我[wo]愿[yuan]意[yi]分[fen]享[xiang]一[yi]篇[pian]我[wo]07年[nian]2月[yue]份[fen]看[kan]到[dao]的[de]张[zhang]志[zhi]雄[xiong]先[xian]生[sheng]的[de]一[yi]篇[pian]好[hao]文[wen]章[zhang]。当[dang]时[shi]我[wo]看[kan]了[liao]这[zhe]篇[pian]文[wen]章[zhang]后[hou],整[zheng]个[ge]人[ren]都[du]不[bu]好[hao]了[liao]。38度[du]2的[de]那[na]种[zhong],而[er]且[qie]持[chi]续[xu]了[liao]快[kuai]一[yi]年[nian]。接[jie]下[xia]来[lai]为[wei]大[da]家[jia]介[jie]绍[shao]"[股[gu]票[piao]买[mai]卖[mai]原[yuan]则[ze]]说[shuo]说[shuo]20年[nian]炒[chao]股[gu]经[jing]验[yan]来[lai]谈[tan]牛[niu]市[shi]一[yi]篇[pian]好[hao]文[wen]"弄[long]不[bu]懂[dong]的[de]来[lai]认[ren]识[shi]一[yi]下[xia]吧[ba]
    20年[nian]炒[chao]股[gu]经[jing]验[yan]来[lai]谈[tan]牛[niu]市[shi]一[yi]篇[pian]好[hao]文[wen]


    当[dang]然[ran],如[ru]果[guo]这[zhe]是[shi]牛[niu]市[shi]。。可[ke]以[yi]参[can]考[kao]。中[zhong]国[guo]股[gu]市[shi]:已[yi]经[jing]疯[feng]狂[kuang],但[dan]刚[gang]开[kai]始[shi]


    2005年[nian]7月[yue],我[wo]与[yu]Q先[xian]生[sheng]有[you]过[guo]一[yi]次[ci]对[dui]话[hua],当[dang]时[shi]他[ta]认[ren]为[wei]是[shi]卖[mai]掉[diao]房[fang]子[zi]买[mai]股[gu]票[piao]的[de]好[hao]时[shi]机[ji],并[bing]认[ren]为[wei]万[wan]科[ke]与[yu]招[zhao]行[xing]是[shi]内[na]地[di]最[zui]值[zhi]得[de]投[tou]资[zi]的[de]两[liang]只[zhi]股[gu]票[piao]。到[dao]2006年[nian]年[nian]底[di],这[zhe]两[liang]只[zhi]股[gu]票[piao]已[yi]翻[fan]了[liao]近[jin]三[san]倍[bei],仅[jin]在[zai]2006年[nian],万[wan]科[ke]上[shang]涨[zhang]了[liao]258.22%,招[zhao]行[xing]上[shang]涨[zhang]了[liao]207.4%,同[tong]期[qi]上[shang]证[zheng]指[zhi]数[shu]上[shang]涨[zhang]了[liao]130%。


    最[zui]近[jin],我[wo]与[yu]他[ta]聊[liao]天[tian],商[shang]讨[tao]目[mu]前[qian]的[de]市[shi]场[chang]状[zhuang]态[tai]及[ji]投[tou]资[zi]策[ce]略[lue]。Q先[xian]生[sheng]的[de]判[pan]断[duan]是[shi],内[na]地[di]股[gu]市[shi]已[yi]经[jing]疯[feng]狂[kuang],但[dan]只[zhi]是[shi]疯[feng]狂[kuang]的[de]开[kai]始[shi]。任[ren]何[he]泡[pao]沫[mo]都[du]有[you]一[yi]个[ge]形[xing]成[cheng]、扩[kuo]张[zhang]、急[ji]剧[ju]膨[peng]胀[zhang]然[ran]后[hou]崩[beng]溃[kui]的[de]过[guo]程[cheng],由[you]于[yu]泡[pao]沫[mo]刚[gang]形[xing]成[cheng],我[wo]们[men]仍[reng]可[ke]以[yi]持[chi]股[gu]观[guan]望[wang],当[dang]然[ran]没[mei]必[bi]要[yao]与[yu]泡[pao]沫[mo]共[gong]舞[wu],只[zhi]不[bu]过[guo]自[zi]己[ji]始[shi]终[zhong]留[liu]一[yi]份[fen]清[qing]醒[xing]罢[ba]了[liao]。


    一[yi]般[ban]来[lai]说[shuo],随[sui]着[zhou]泡[pao]沫[mo]越[yue]吹[chui]越[yue]大[da],股[gu]价[jia]会[hui]越[yue]来[lai]越[yue]迅[xun]速[su]地[di]攀[pan]高[gao],最[zui]后[hou]的[de]速[su]度[du]和[he]幅[fu]度[du]让[rang]人[ren]难[nan]以[yi]置[zhi]信[xin]。Q先[xian]生[sheng]告[gao]诉[su]我[wo],他[ta]1999年[nian]曾[zeng]以[yi]每[mei]股[gu]2港[gang]元[yuan]的[de]成[cheng]本[ben]买[mai]入[ru]联[lian]想[xiang]集[ji]团[tuan]股[gu]票[piao],但[dan]在[zai]2000年[nian]年[nian]初[chu]不[bu]到[dao]三[san]个[ge]月[yue]的[de]时[shi]间[jian],联[lian]想[xiang]就[jiu]从[cong]20港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu]左[zuo]右[you]上[shang]涨[zhang]到[dao]70多[duo]港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu],但[dan]真[zhen]正[zheng]的[de]奇[qi]迹[ji]是[shi]它[ta]仅[jin]用[yong]了[liao]三[san]天[tian]时[shi]间[jian],就[jiu]从[cong]30多[duo]港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu]涨[zhang]到[dao]70多[duo]港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu],其[qi]中[zhong]的[de]2000年[nian]3月[yue]7日[ri]一[yi]天[tian],联[lian]想[xiang]集[ji]团[tuan]就[jiu]上[shang]涨[zhang]了[liao]64.31%。由[you]于[yu]A股[gu]市[shi]场[chang]长[chang]期[qi]以[yi]来[lai]都[du]是[shi]每[mei]天[tian]只[zhi]能[nen]涨[zhang]10%,已[yi]难[nan]以[yi]想[xiang]象[xiang]香[xiang]港[gang]市[shi]场[chang]没[mei]有[you]涨[zhang]停[ting]板[ban]的[de]情[qing]形[xing]。不[bu]管[guan]怎[zen]么[me]说[shuo],一[yi]只[zhi]股[gu]票[piao]一[yi]天[tian]上[shang]涨[zhang]近[jin]65%,当[dang]时[shi]的[de]人[ren]们[men]一[yi]定[ding]会[hui]瞠[cheng]目[mu]结[jie]舌[she]。最[zui]近[jin]的[de]一[yi]个[ge]例[li]子[zi]是[shi]2006年[nian]12月[yue]27日[ri],也[ye]是[shi]在[zai]香[xiang]港[gang]上[shang]市[shi]的[de]中[zhong]国[guo]网[wang]通[tong],一[yi]天[tian]上[shang]涨[zhang]近[jin]31%,该[gai]公[gong]司[si]不[bu]得[de]不[bu]出[chu]来[lai]澄[cheng]清[qing]有[you]关[guan]收[shou]购[gou]联[lian]通[tong]的[de]传[chuan]闻[wen]。按[an]理[li]说[shuo],收[shou]购[gou]方[fang]中[zhong]国[guo]网[wang]通[tong]应[ying]该[gai]跌[die]价[jia]才[cai]对[dui],市[shi]场[chang]却[que]以[yi]大[da]涨[zhang]回[hui]应[ying],这[zhe]都[du]说[shuo]明[ming]包[bao]括[kuo]香[xiang]港[gang]股[gu]市[shi]在[zai]内[na]的[de]中[zhong]资[zi]股[gu]已[yi]然[ran]疯[feng]狂[kuang]。


    我[wo]查[cha]了[liao]一[yi]下[xia]联[lian]想[xiang]集[ji]团[tuan]的[de]资[zi]料[liao],2006年[nian]12月[yue]29日[ri]它[ta]的[de]股[gu]价[jia]也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]3.16港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu],以[yi]复[fu]权[quan]价[jia]计[ji]算[suan],联[lian]想[xiang]在[zai]2000年[nian]3月[yue]9日[ri]的[de]最[zui]高[gao]价[jia]是[shi]16.45港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu]。也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]说[shuo],6年[nian]半[ban]过[guo]去[qu]了[liao],当[dang]年[nian]在[zai]最[zui]高[gao]价[jia]追[zhui]进[jin]的[de]投[tou]机[ji]者[zhe]损[sun]失[shi]仍[reng]有[you]80%。其[qi]实[shi],2000年[nian]2月[yue]2日[ri],联[lian]想[xiang]也[ye]只[zhi]有[you]6港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu](复[fu]权[quan])啊[a]。如[ru]果[guo]从[cong]最[zui]高[gao]点[dian]的[de]16.45港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu]倒[dao]推[tui]一[yi]年[nian],1999年[nian]3月[yue]9日[ri]的[de]联[lian]想[xiang]才[cai]0.81港[gang]元[yuan]/股[gu](复[fu]权[quan]),一[yi]年[nian]内[na]竟[jing]上[shang]涨[zhang]了[liao]20倍[bei]。


    近[jin股票买卖原则]来[lai],有[you]位[wei]内[na]地[di]基[ji]金[jin]经[jing]理[li]洋[yang]洋[yang]得[de]意[yi]地[di]告[gao]诉[su]Q先[xian]生[sheng],“我[wo]们[men]内[na]地[di]投[tou]资[zi]机[ji]构[gou]终[zhong]于[yu]从[cong]香[xiang]港[gang]市[shi]场[chang]那[na]儿[er]夺[duo]回[hui]定[ding]价[jia]权[quan]了[liao],像[xiang]中[zhong]国[guo]工[gong]商[shang]银[yin]行[xing]A股[gu]已[yi]超[chao]过[guo]H股[gu]的[de]股[gu]价[jia]了[liao]。”我[wo]们[men]听[ting]后[hou]都[du]大[da]笑[xiao],有[you]这[zhe]种[zhong]水[shui]平[ping]的[de]基[ji]金[jin]经[jing]理[li],股[gu]市[shi]不[bu]出[chu]现[xian]大[da]泡[pao]沫[mo]才[cai]怪[guai]。截[jie]至[zhi]2006年[nian]12月[yue]29日[ri],以[yi]市[shi]值[zhi]计[ji]算[suan],中[zhong]国[guo]工[gong]商[shang]银[yin]行[xing]、中[zhong]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]和[he]建[jian]设[she]银[yin]行[xing]已[yi]进[jin]入[ru]世[shi]界[jie]十[shi]大[da]银[yin]行[xing]股[gu]之[zhi]列[lie],中[zhong]国[guo]工[gong]商[shang]银[yin]行[xing]已[yi]超[chao]越[yue]美[mei]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]和[he]汇[hui]丰[feng]银[yin]行[xing],晋[jin]升[sheng]为[wei]全[quan]球[qiu]第[di]二[er]大[da]市[shi]值[zhi]银[yin]行[xing],中[zhong]行[xing]也[ye]超[chao]过[guo]日[ri]本[ben]三[san]菱[ling]UFJ金[jin]融[rong]集[ji]团[tuan],跻[ji]身[shen]全[quan]球[qiu]六[liu]大[da]。由[you]于[yu]排[pai]名[ming]第[di]一[yi]的[de]花[hua]旗[qi]集[ji]团[tuan](2,740亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan])与[yu]工[gong]行[xing](2,142亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan])差[cha]距[ju]不[bu]大[da],只[zhi]有[you]10%多[duo]一[yi]点[dian],后[hou]者[zhe]要[yao]成[cheng]为[wei]世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]是[shi]很[hen]容[rong]易[yi]的[de],当[dang]年[nian]日[ri]本[ben]的[de]银[yin]行[xing]也[ye]不[bu]是[shi]世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]嘛[ma],呵[he]呵[he](引[yin]用[yong]网[wang]络[luo]上[shang]流[liu]行[xing]的[de]笑[xiao]容[rong])。问[wen]题[ti]是[shi]世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]的[de]市[shi]值[zhi]能[nen]持[chi]续[xu]多[duo]久[jiu],还[huai]有[you]更[geng]重[zhong]要[yao]的[de]是[shi],工[gong]商[shang]银[yin]行[xing]真[zhen]的[de]比[bi]花[hua]旗[qi]、汇[hui]丰[feng]和[he]美[mei]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]卓[zhuo]越[yue]?我[wo]们[men]没[mei]必[bi]要[yao]去[qu]问[wen]央[yang]行[xing]行[xing]长[chang]周[zhou]小[xiao]川[chuan],答[da]案[an]不[bu]言[yan]自[zi]明[ming]。


    看[kan]看[kan]曾[zeng]经[jing]大[da]泡[pao]沫[mo]过[guo]的[de]日[ri]本[ben],温[wen]故[gu]知[zhi]新[xin],有[you]好[hao]处[chu]。1987年[nian]10月[yue]30日[ri],日[ri]本[ben]东[dong]京[jing]股[gu]市[shi]总[zong]市[shi]值[zhi]以[yi]26,700亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]超[chao]过[guo]了[liao]22,500亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]的[de]美[mei]国[guo]股[gu]市[shi]成[cheng]为[wei]世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]。但[dan]这[zhe]疯[feng]狂[kuang]刚[gang]开[kai]始[shi],因[yin]为[wei]1987年[nian]12月[yue]11日[ri],日[ri]经[jing]指[zhi]数[shu]仍[reng]是[shi]12,900点[dian],一[yi]直[zhi]上[shang]升[sheng]到[dao]1989年[nian]12月[yue]26日[ri]的[de]38,915点[dian],市[shi]值[zhi]是[shi]36,000亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],是[shi]当[dang]年[nian]GDP的[de]146%,市[shi]盈[ying]率[lv]72倍[bei]。但[dan]从[cong]1989年[nian]12月[yue]26日[ri]的[de]最[zui]高[gao]点[dian]急[ji]跌[die]至[zhi]1990年[nian]8月[yue],已[yi]下[xia]跌[die]了[liao]40%。十[shi]三[san]年[nian]后[hou]的[de]2002年[nian]2月[yue]底[di],日[ri]本[ben]股[gu]市[shi]市[shi]值[zhi]只[zhi]余[yu]20,700亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],仅[jin]是[shi]日[ri]本[ben]GDP的[de]52%,但[dan]同[tong]日[ri]的[de]美[mei]国[guo]股[gu]市[shi]市[shi]值[zhi]已[yi]是[shi]84,800亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],是[shi]同[tong]年[nian]GDP的[de]78%,要[yao]知[zhi]道[dao]此[ci]时[shi]美[mei]国[guo]也[ye]已[yi]经[jing]进[jin]入[ru]科[ke]网[wang]泡[pao]沫[mo]后[hou]的[de]低[di]靡[mi]期[qi]。而[er]日[ri]经[jing]指[zhi]数[shu]真[zhen]正[zheng]见[jian]底[di]是[shi]2003年[nian]上[shang]半[ban]年[nian],下[xia]挫[cuo]到[dao]二[er]十[shi]年[nian]新[xin]低[di]的[de]8,000点[dian]。


    在[zai]大[da]泡[pao]沫[mo]时[shi]代[dai],世[shi]界[jie]十[shi]大[da]银[yin]行[xing],日[ri]本[ben]竟[jing]占[zhan]了[liao]八[ba]位[wei],全[quan]部[bu]是[shi]评[ping]分[fen]AAA级[ji]。直[zhi]至[zhi]1993年[nian]美[mei]国[guo]《财[cai]富[fu]》杂[za]志[zhi]世[shi]界[jie]银[yin]行[xing]排[pai]名[ming],以[yi]资[zi]产[chan]额[e]论[lun],前[qian]二[er]十[shi]一[yi]名[ming],日[ri]本[ben]仍[reng]占[zhan]了[liao]十[shi]七[qi]名[ming],也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]世[shi]界[jie]大[da]银[yin]行[xing]中[zhong]超[chao]过[guo]八[ba]成[cheng股票买卖原则]是[shi]日[ri]本[ben]银[yin]行[xing]。一[yi]至[zhi]五[wu]名[ming]的[de]富[fu]士[shi]银[yin]行[xing]、第[di]一[yi]劝[quan]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]、住[zhu]友[you]银[yin]行[xing]、三[san]和[he]银[yin]行[xing]、樱[ying]花[hua]银[yin]行[xing],资[zi]产[chan]全[quan]部[bu]超[chao]过[guo]5,000亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]。汇[hui]丰[feng]当[dang]年[nian]排[pai]名[ming]第[di]十[shi]六[liu],资[zi]产[chan]仅[jin]3,000亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],美[mei]国[guo]花[hua]旗[qi]银[yin]行[xing]根[gen]本[ben]进[jin]不[bu]了[liao]榜[bang]。如[ru]果[guo]以[yi]股[gu]东[dong]权[quan]益[yi](或[huo]股[gu]票[piao]市[shi]值[zhi])排[pai]名[ming],前[qian]二[er]十[shi]一[yi]名[ming]中[zhong],仍[reng]有[you]五[wu]成[cheng]以[yi]上[shang]是[shi]日[ri]本[ben]银[yin]行[xing],占[zhan]十[shi]一[yi]家[jia]。世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]的[de]安[an]田[tian]信[xin]托[tuo],股[gu]本[ben]超[chao]过[guo]500亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],是[shi]排[pai]名[ming]第[di]二[er]的[de]住[zhu]友[you]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]2.3倍[bei]。美[mei]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]和[he]花[hua]旗[qi]银[yin]行[xing]排[pai]在[zai]第[di]九[jiu]和[he]第[di]十[shi]一[yi],汇[hui]丰[feng]以[yi]138亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]排[pai]名[ming]第[di]十[shi]二[er]。十[shi]年[nian]后[hou]的[de]2003年[nian]5月[yue]底[di],全[quan]球[qiu]银[yin]行[xing]都[du]发[fa]生[sheng]了[liao]天[tian]翻[fan]地[di]覆[fu]的[de]变[bian]化[hua],美[mei]国[guo]的[de]银[yin]行[xing]早[zao]可[ke]跨[kua]州[zhou]购[gou]并[bing],花[hua]旗[qi]银[yin]行[xing]与[yu]旅[lv]行[xing]者[zhe]保[bao]险[xian]等[deng]合[he]并[bing],成[cheng]为[wei]全[quan]球[qiu]市[shi]值[zhi]最[zui]高[gao]的[de]银[yin]行[xing](2,300亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]),比[bi]1993年[nian]的[de]140亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]股[gu]本[ben],增[zeng]加[jia]了[liao]16倍[bei]之[zhi]多[duo]。美[mei]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]名[ming]字[zi]保[bao]存[cun]下[xia]来[lai],但[dan]经[jing]合[he]并[bing]已[yi]人[ren]事[shi]全[quan]非[fei],市[shi]值[zhi]有[you]1,100亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],也[ye]是[shi]当[dang]年[nian]的[de]6倍[bei]。汇[hui]丰[feng]也[ye]经[jing]收[shou]购[gou]英[ying]国[guo]米[mi]特[te]兰[lan]、法[fa]国[guo]商[shang]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]等[deng]一[yi]连[lian]串[chuan]行[xing]动[dong],市[shi]值[zhi]达[da]1,700亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],十[shi]年[nian]翻[fan]了[liao]9倍[bei]。日[ri]本[ben]银[yin]行[xing]界[jie]的[de]十[shi]年[nian]合[he]并[bing],资[zi]产[chan]额[e]也[ye]是[shi]愈[yu]并[bing]愈[yu]大[da]。由[you]1993年[nian]世[shi]界[jie]第[di]一[yi]的[de]富[fu]士[shi]、第[di]二[er]的[de]劝[quan]业[ye]和[he]第[di]八[ba]的[de]日[ri]兴[xing]银[yin]行[xing]组[zu]成[cheng]的[de]瑞[rui]穗[sui]银[yin]行[xing],资[zi]产[chan]额[e]已[yi]比[bi]当[dang]年[nian]三[san]家[jia]的[de]资[zi]产[chan]总[zong]额[e]缩[suo]水[shui]15%,可[ke]叹[tan]的[de]是[shi]市[shi]值[zhi]已[yi]从[cong]1993年[nian]的[de]525亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]缩[suo]水[shui]至[zhi]61.5亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],幅[fu]度[du]达[da]82%。最[zui]为[wei]幻[huan]灭[mie]的[de]是[shi]1993年[nian]全[quan]世[shi]界[jie]市[shi]值[zhi]第[di]一[yi]的[de]安[an]田[tian]信[xin]托[tuo],已[yi]变[bian]成[cheng]了[liao]瑞[rui]穗[sui]集[ji]团[tuan]的[de]一[yi]分[fen]子[zi],别[bie]说[shuo]世[shi]界[jie]排[pai]名[ming],市[shi]值[zhi]已[yi]不[bu]在[zai]日[ri]本[ben]上[shang]市[shi]一[yi]百[bai]大[da]之[zhi]内[na]了[liao]。由[you]住[zhu]友[you]和[he]樱[ying]花[hua]银[yin]行[xing]组[zu]成[cheng]的[de]日[ri]本[ben]“第[di]二[er]大[da]银[yin]行[xing]”住[zhu]友[you]三[san]井[jing],2003年[nian]市[shi]值[zhi]只[zhi]有[you]94亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],缩[suo]水[shui]四[si]分[fen]之[zhi]三[san]。由[you]三[san]菱[ling]、东[dong]京[jing]和[he]三[san]菱[ling]信[xin]托[tuo]所[suo]组[zu]成[cheng]的[de]“第[di]三[san]大[da]银[yin]行[xing]”,市[shi]值[zhi]是[shi]230亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],是[shi]日[ri]本[ben]银[yin]行[xing]界[jie]最[zui]高[gao]的[de],但[dan]只[zhi]是[shi]同[tong]日[ri]的[de]汇[hui]丰[feng]市[shi]值[zhi]的[de]五[wu]分[fen]之[zhi]一[yi]。日[ri]本[ben]第[di]四[si]的[de]日[ri]本[ben]联[lian]合[he]金[jin]融[rong]的[de]市[shi]值[zhi]更[geng]弱[ruo],只[zhi]有[you]47亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]。


    北[bei]京[jing]大[da]学[xue]光[guang]华[hua]管[guan]理[li]学[xue]院[yuan]的[de]教[jiao]授[shou]Michael Pettis在[zai]2007年[nian]1月[yue]17日[ri]的[de]华[hua]尔[er]街[jie]日[ri]报[bao]中[zhong]文[wen]网[wang]站[zhan]上[shang]仍[reng]然[ran]认[ren]为[wei],目[mu]前[qian]中[zhong]国[guo]的[de]银[yin]行[xing]实[shi]际[ji]上[shang]大[da]多[duo]资[zi]不[bu]抵[di]债[zhai]。他[ta]引[yin]用[yong]了[liao]惠[hui]誉[yu]国[guo]际[ji]评[ping]级[ji]在[zai]2006年[nian]11月[yue]的[de]一[yi]份[fen]对[dui]中[zhong]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]业[ye]的[de]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]总[zong]额[e]评[ping]估[gu]报[bao]告[gao]结[jie]论[lun],假[jia]设[she]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]回[hui]收[shou]率[lv]为[wei]30%(其[qi]实[shi]中[zhong]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]业[ye]的[de]平[ping]均[jun]回[hui]收[shou]率[lv]仅[jin]为[wei]20%左[zuo]右[you]),中[zhong]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]业[ye]的[de]未[wei]兑[dui]现[xian]损[sun]失[shi]总[zong]额[e]为[wei]2,500亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]左[zuo]右[you],比[bi]它[ta]的[de]资[zi]本[ben]与[yu]准[zhun]备[bei]金[jin]的[de]总[zong]和[he]高[gao]三[san]分[fen]之[zhi]一[yi]以[yi]上[shang]。这[zhe]个[ge]计[ji]算[suan]没[mei]有[you]包[bao]括[kuo]过[guo]去[qu]两[liang]年[nian]贷[dai]款[kuan]飞[fei]速[su]增[zeng]长[chang]所[suo]产[chan]生[sheng]的[de]不[bu]良[liang]资[zi]产[chan]估[gu]计[ji]值[zhi]。中[zhong]国[guo]的[de]贷[dai]款[kuan]额[e]在[zai]2006年[nian]上[shang]半[ban]年[nian]就[jiu]增[zeng]长[chang]了[liao]10.2%。大[da]多[duo]数[shu]分[fen]析[xi]人[ren]士[shi]认[ren]为[wei],这[zhe]种[zhong]极[ji]快[kuai]的[de]贷[dai]款[kuan]增[zeng]长[chang]必[bi]将[jiang]导[dao]致[zhi]不[bu]良[liang]资[zi]产[chan]的[de]大[da]幅[fu]上[shang]升[sheng]。惠[hui]誉[yu]的[de]数[shu]据[ju]没[mei]有[you]包[bao]括[kuo]由[you]资[zi]产[chan]管[guan]理[li]公[gong]司[si]通[tong]过[guo]低[di]息[xi]债[zhai]券[quan]收[shou]购[gou]的[de]3,000亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]的[de]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan],如[ru]果[guo]按[an]市[shi]价[jia]核[he]算[suan],这[zhe]笔[bi]债[zhai]券[quan]中[zhong]还[huai]应[ying]该[gai]包[bao]括[kuo]10%-15%的[de]冲[chong]减[jian]。把[ba]所[suo]有[you]这[zhe]些[xie]调[diao]整[zheng]都[du]考[kao]虑[lv]在[zai]内[na]之[zhi]后[hou],中[zhong]国[guo]的[de]每[mei]一[yi]家[jia]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]负[fu]债[zhai]实[shi]际[ji]上[shang]都[du]已[yi]超[chao]过[guo]了[liao]资[zi]产[chan]的[de]真[zhen]正[zheng]价[jia]值[zhi]。


    这[zhe]种[zhong]认[ren]为[wei]中[zhong]国[guo]银[yin]行[xing]股[gu]无[wu]内[na]在[zai]价[jia]值[zhi]的[de]看[kan]法[fa],一[yi]家[jia]之[zhi]言[yan]吧[ba]。不[bu]过[guo],Pettis举[ju]的[de]一[yi]个[ge]例[li]子[zi]值[zhi]得[de]注[zhu]意[yi]。1990年[nian]至[zhi]1992年[nian]间[jian],墨[mo]西[xi]哥[ge]共[gong]有[you]18家[jia]国[guo]有[you]商[shang]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]全[quan]部[bu]实[shi]行[xing]了[liao]私[si]有[you]化[hua],当[dang]时[shi]该[gai]国[guo]刚[gang]从[cong]近[jin]十[shi]年[nian]的[de]经[jing]济[ji]危[wei]机[ji]中[zhong]走[zou]出[chu],投[tou]资[zi]情[qing]绪[xu]过[guo]于[yu]乐[le]观[guan]。尽[jin]管[guan]从[cong]技[ji]术[shu]上[shang]说[shuo],几[ji]乎[hu]所[suo]有[you]银[yin]行[xing]都[du]已[yi]经[jing]无[wu]力[li]偿[chang]债[zhai],但[dan]它[ta]们[men]却[que]平[ping]均[jun]卖[mai]出[chu]了[liao]账[zhang]面[mian]价[jia]值[zhi]3倍[bei]以[yi]上[shang]的[de]价[jia]格[ge]——鉴[jian]于[yu]当[dang]时[shi]全[quan]球[qiu]的[de]利[li]率[lv]水[shui]平[ping]比[bi]现[xian]在[zai]高[gao]出[chu]许[xu]多[duo],这[zhe]个[ge]幅[fu]度[du]的[de]确[que]很[hen]大[da]。这[zhe]些[xie]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]估[gu]值[zhi]标[biao]准[zhun]甚[shen]至[zhi]超[chao]过[guo]了[liao]世[shi]界[jie]上[shang]一[yi]些[xie]最[zui]大[da]的[de]银[yin]行[xing],如[ru]墨[mo]西[xi]哥[ge]最[zui]大[da]的[de]银[yin]行[xing]Banamex的[de]价[jia]格[ge]与[yu]账[zhang]面[mian]价[jia]值[zhi]达[da]到[dao]了[liao]墨[mo]西[xi]哥[ge]最[zui]大[da]的[de]债[zhai]权[quan]人[ren]花[hua]旗[qi]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]近[jin]两[liang]倍[bei]。到[dao]1998年[nian],Banamex的[de]股[gu]价[jia]却[que]差[cha]不[bu]多[duo]只[zhi]有[you]其[qi]账[zhang]面[mian]价[jia]值[zhi]的[de]一[yi]半[ban],不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]也[ye]开[kai]始[shi]猛[meng]增[zeng]。如[ru]今[jin],墨[mo]西[xi]哥[ge]大[da]多[duo]数[shu]主[zhu]要[yao]银[yin]行[xing]均[jun]是[shi]外[wai]国[guo]人[ren]控[kong]股[gu],花[hua]旗[qi]银[yin]行[xing]就[jiu]是[shi]在[zai]2001年[nian]收[shou]购[gou]Banamex的[de]。顺[shun]便[bian]一[yi]提[ti],截[jie]至[zhi]2006年[nian]12月[yue]28日[ri]收[shou]盘[pan],以[yi]三[san]季[ji]度[du]数[shu]据[ju]计[ji]算[suan],工[gong]行[xing]的[de]市[shi]净[jing]率[lv]高[gao]达[da]5.99倍[bei],民[min]生[sheng]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]市[shi]净[jing]率[lv]为[wei]5.73倍[bei],浦[pu]发[fa]银[yin]行[xing]的[de]市[shi]净[jing]率[lv]达[da]到[dao]4.91倍[bei],市[shi]场[chang]的[de]7只[zhi]银[yin]行[xing]股[gu]的[de]平[ping]均[jun]市[shi]净[jing]率[lv]为[wei]4.52倍[bei],达[da]到[dao]国[guo]际[ji]水[shui]平[ping]的[de]2倍[bei]有[you]余[yu],已[yi]处[chu]于[yu]全[quan]球[qiu]最[zui]高[gao]水[shui]平[ping]。


    关[guan]于[yu]市[shi]值[zhi]的[de]迷[mi]梦[meng],我[wo]曾[zeng]有[you]过[guo]一[yi]个[ge]深[shen]刻[ke]的[de]感[gan]受[shou]。2000年[nian]年[nian]初[chu],我[wo]在[zai]上[shang]海[hai]有[you]线[xian]电[dian]视[shi]台[tai]财[cai]经[jing]频[pin]道[dao]工[gong]作[zuo],有[you]一[yi]天[tian]晚[wan]上[shang],审[shen]核[he]股[gu]市[shi]行[xing]情[qing]节[jie]目[mu],忽[hu]然[ran]发[fa]现[xian]综[zong]艺[yi]股[gu]份[fen]的[de]名[ming]字[zi]赫[he]然[ran]列[lie]入[ru]上[shang]海[hai]股[gu]市[shi]A股[gu]十[shi]大[da]市[shi]值[zhi]之[zhi]列[lie],我[wo]当[dang]时[shi]吓[xia]了[liao]一[yi]跳[tiao],真[zhen]以[yi]为[wei]是[shi]错[cuo]觉[jue]哩[li]。这[zhe]只[zhi]网[wang]络[luo]股[gu]就[jiu]凭[ping]当[dang]年[nian]的[de]网[wang]站[zhan]8848要[yao]赴[fu]美[mei]国[guo]纳[na]斯[si]达[da]克[ke]上[shang]市[shi]的[de]传[chuan]闻[wen],从[cong]1999年[nian]11月[yue]初[chu]的[de]20元[yuan]/股[gu]上[shang]涨[zhang]到[dao]2000年[nian]2月[yue]21日[ri]的[de]64.27元[yuan]/股[gu],最[zui]后[hou]崩[beng]溃[kui]。那[na]天[tian]晚[wan]上[shang],综[zong]艺[yi]股[gu]份[fen]挑[tao]战[zhan]了[liao]我[wo]们[men]的[de]常[chang]识[shi],但[dan]它[ta]离[li]幻[huan]灭[mie]也[ye]就[jiu]不[bu]远[yuan]了[liao]。


    我[wo]们[men]基[ji]本[ben]上[shang]可[ke]以[yi]判[pan]断[duan]A股[gu]和[he]H股[gu]都[du]在[zai]上[shang]演[yan]以[yi]金[jin]融[rong]股[gu]为[wei]首[shou]的[de]泡[pao]沫[mo]闹[nao]剧[ju],今[jin]后[hou]可[ke]能[nen]在[zai]历[li]史[shi]上[shang]与[yu]红[hong]筹[chou]股[gu]与[yu]网[wang]络[luo]科[ke]技[ji]股[gu]等[deng]泡[pao]沫[mo]齐[qi]名[ming],甚[shen]至[zhi]更[geng]为[wei]著[zhu]名[ming]。


    但[dan]Q先[xian]生[sheng]也[ye]直[zhi]言[yan]不[bu]讳[hui]:“这[zhe]可[ke]能[nen]是[shi]我[wo]们[men]这[zhe]代[dai]人[ren]在[zai]股[gu]市[shi]中[zhong]积[ji]累[lei]财[cai]富[fu]最[zui]快[kuai]的[de]一[yi]次[ci]。”


    我[wo]赶[gan]紧[jin]补[bu]充[chong]:“但[dan]最[zui]后[hou]也[ye]有[you]可[ke]能[nen]是[shi]我[wo]们[men]这[zhe]代[dai]人[ren]在[zai]股[gu]市[shi]中[zhong]财[cai]富[fu]损[sun]失[shi]得[de]最[zui]厉[li]害[hai]的[de]一[yi]次[ci],笑[xiao]到[dao]最[zui]后[hou],才[cai]是[shi]赢[ying]家[jia]。”


    从[cong]今[jin]天[tian]看[kan],最[zui]好[hao]的[de]办[ban]法[fa]是[shi]以[yi]静[jing]制[zhi]动[dong],冷[ling]眼[yan]旁[pang]观[guan],紧[jin]握[wo]股[gu]票[piao],节[jie]省[sheng]能[nen]量[liang],最[zui]终[zhong]离[li]场[chang]。何[he]以[yi]如[ru]此[ci],本[ben]期[qi]的[de]封[feng]面[mian]故[gu]事[shi]《这[zhe]就[jiu]是[shi]牛[niu]市[shi]》也[ye]是[shi]我[wo]对[dui]《股[gu]票[piao]作[zuo]手[shou]回[hui]忆[yi]录[lu]》的[de]重[zhong]读[du]感[gan]受[shou],可[ke]以[yi]参[can]考[kao]。


    2007年[nian]的[de]股[gu]市[shi]将[jiang]热[re]得[de]让[rang]你[ni]受[shou]不[bu]了[liao],也[ye]会[hui]突[tu]然[ran]冷[ling]一[yi]下[xia],让[rang]你[ni]重[zhong]感[gan]冒[mao]。期[qi]间[jian]会[hui]有[you]大[da]调[diao]整[zheng],然[ran]后[hou]涨[zhang]得[de]更[geng]凶[xiong],这[zhe]已[yi]与[yu]估[gu]值[zhi]无[wu]关[guan],只[zhi]是[shi]一[yi]场[chang]群[qun]众[zhong]心[xin]理[li]的[de]争[zheng]战[zhan]。你[ni]会[hui]听[ting]到[dao]一[yi]片[pian]疯[feng]狂[kuang]的[de]喊[han]叫[jiao],比[bi]如[ru]某[mou]券[quan]商[shang]已[yi]预[yu]测[ce]中[zhong]国[guo]人[ren]寿[shou]3年[nian]内[na]达[da]到[dao]90元[yuan]/股[gu],我[wo]们[men]没[mei]必[bi]要[yao]大[da]惊[jing]小[xiao]怪[guai],这[zhe]不[bu]过[guo]是[shi]披[pi]着[zhou]证[zheng]券[quan]分[fen]析[xi]的[de]外[wai]衣[yi]行[xing]赌[du]徒[tu]之[zhi]实[shi]罢[ba]了[liao]。这[zhe]种[zhong]猜[cai]谜[mi]游[you]戏[xi],谁[shui]都[du]可[ke]以[yi]玩[wan],我[wo]们[men]可[ke]以[yi]这[zhe]么[me]说[shuo]:“如[ru]果[guo]中[zhong]国[guo]人[ren]寿[shou]要[yao]上[shang]90元[yuan]/股[gu],就[jiu]用[yong]不[bu]着[zhou]三[san]年[nian]。”不[bu]信[xin],走[zou]着[zhou]瞧[qiao]。如[ru]果[guo]问[wen]我[wo]们[men]有[you]什[shi]么[me]依[yi]据[ju],那[na]就[jiu]是[shi]预[yu]言[yan]的[de]自[zi]我[wo]实[shi]现[xian]一[yi]定[ding]比[bi]预[yu]计[ji]的[de]时[shi]间[jian]短[duan]。我[wo]们[men]还[huai]可[ke]以[yi]比[bi]该[gai]券[quan]商[shang]显[xian]得[de]更[geng]“精[jing]确[que]”更[geng]有[you]“研[yan]究[jiu]”——“两[liang]年[nian]之[zhi]内[na],中[zhong]国[guo]人[ren]寿[shou]达[da]到[dao]92元[yuan]/股[gu]”,怎[zen]么[me]样[yang],又[you]是[shi]一[yi]声[sheng]“呵[he]呵[he]”(我[wo]怎[zen]么[me]感[gan]到[dao]有[you]些[xie]白[bai]痴[chi]啊[a])。


    古[gu]希[xi]腊[la]有[you]个[ge]史[shi]诗[shi]人[ren]物[wu]尤[you]利[li]西[xi]斯[si],他[ta]从[cong]远[yuan]方[fang]征[zheng]战[zhan]回[hui]来[lai],在[zai]海[hai]上[shang]听[ting]到[dao]女[nv]妖[yao]塞[sai]壬[ren]的[de]歌[ge]声[sheng],不[bu]能[nen]自[zi]已[yi]。为[wei]了[liao]抵[di]抗[kang]诱[you]惑[huo],他[ta]塞[sai]住[zhu]两[liang]耳[er],又[you]让[rang]手[shou]下[xia]把[ba]他[ta]绑[bang]住[zhu],才[cai]幸[xing]免[mian]于[yu]难[nan]。2007年[nian]的[de]中[zhong]国[guo]股[gu]市[shi],面[mian]对[dui]泡[pao]沫[mo]急[ji]剧[ju]膨[peng]胀[zhang],我[wo]们[men]也[ye]需[xu]要[yao]有[you]如[ru]此[ci]的[de]定[ding]力[li]。


    潮[chao]水[shui]必[bi]将[jiang]退[tui]去[qu],岸[an]上[shang]的[de]人[ren]一[yi]定[ding]会[hui]看[kan]到[dao]谁[shui]在[zai]裸[luo]泳[yong],我[wo]们[men]会[hui]是[shi]其[qi]中[zhong]一[yi]员[yuan]吗[ma]?时[shi]刻[ke]提[ti]醒[xing]自[zi]己[ji]。如[ru]果[guo]我[wo]们[men]有[you]信[xin]仰[yang],应[ying]该[gai]每[mei]天[tian]祷[dao]告[gao]:请[qing]上[shang]帝[di]赐[ci]福[fu],赐[ci]与[yu]我[wo]们[men]力[li]量[liang],赐[ci股票买卖原则]与[yu]我[wo]们[men]清[qing]醒[xing]的[de]头[tou]脑[nao],让[rang]我[wo]们[men]不[bu]贪[tan]婪[lan],让[rang]我[wo]们[men]不[bu]恐[kong]惧[ju],让[rang]我[wo]们[men]免[mian]于[yu]泡[pao]沫[mo]的[de]试[shi]探[tan],免[mian]于[yu]灾[zai]难[nan],财[cai]富[fu]属[shu]于[yu]上[shang]帝[di],我[wo]们[men]只[zhi]是[shi]地[di]下[xia]财[cai]富[fu]的[de]代[dai]管[guan]者[zhe]。看[kan]后[hou]续[xu]文[wen]章[zhang],请[qing]点[dian]击[ji] “相[xiang]关[guan]链[lian]接[jie]”关[guan]注[zhu](微[wei]信[xin]公[gong]众[zhong]号[hao]:sem-cn)


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    相信读过上文,各位已经知道"[股票买卖原则]说说20年炒股经验来谈牛市一篇好文"了吧?早已在上述文章为大伙儿开展了解读,坚信诸位看了以后应该可以搞清楚哦

    转载请注明来自,本文标题:20年炒股经验来谈牛市一篇好文
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    标签: 股票买卖原则

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