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    当前位置: 牛股配资网 > 在线配资 > 巴菲特的成功不可靠?

    巴菲特的成功不可靠?

    2020-10-04 0条评论

    纳[na]西[xi]姆[mu]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]曾[zeng]表[biao]示[shi],沃[wo]伦[lun]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]不[bu]如[ru]乔[qiao]治[zhi]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]那[na]样[yang]可[ke]靠[kao],因[yin]此[ci]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]“不[bu]会[hui]在[zai]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]身[shen]上[shang]花[hua]费[fei]太[tai]多[duo]的[de]时[shi]间[jian]。索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]拥[yong]有[you]200万[wan]次[ci]有[you]记[ji]录[lu]的[de]证[zheng]据[ju],表[biao]明[ming]他[ta]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]绝[jue]非[fei]巧[qiao]合[he],远[yuan]多[duo]于[yu]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]。索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]更[geng]加[jia]可[ke]靠[kao]。我[wo]不[bu]是[shi]说[shuo]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]不[bu]具[ju]备[bei]能[nen]力[li],我[wo]只[zhi]是[shi]说[shuo],我[wo]们[men]没[mei]有[you]充[chong]分[fen]的[de]证[zheng]据[ju]证[zheng]明[ming]他[ta]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]不[bu]是[shi]机[ji]缘[yuan]巧[qiao]合[he]的[de]结[jie]果[guo]。”有[you]好[hao]长[chang]一[yi]段[duan]时[shi]间[jian]我[wo]对[dui]此[ci]深[shen]感[gan]疑[yi]惑[huo],直[zhi]到[dao]最[zui]近[jin],我[wo]读[du]了[liao]他[ta]的[de]著[zhu]作[zuo]才[cai]知[zhi]道[dao],他[ta]有[you]这[zhe]种[zhong]看[kan]法[fa]并[bing]非[fei]偶[ou]然[ran]。接[jie]下[xia]来[lai]为[wei]大[da]家[jia]介[jie]绍[shao]"[颂[song]元[yuan]资[zi]产[chan]管[guan]理[li]]热[re]议[yi]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]不[bu]可[ke]靠[kao]?"不[bu]会[hui]的[de]来[lai]看[kan]看[kan]吧[ba]
    巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]不[bu]可[ke]靠[kao]?

    索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]之[zhi]所[suo]以[yi]受[shou]到[dao]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]的[de]高[gao]度[du]赞[zan]赏[shang],是[shi]因[yin]为[wei]在[zai]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]身[shen]上[shang]有[you]一[yi]种[zhong]优[you]异[yi]的[de]“特[te]质[zhi]”——这[zhe]也[ye]是[shi]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]愿[yuan]意[yi]追[zhui]随[sui]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]的[de]地[di]方[fang]:他[ta]的[de]信[xin]念[nian]完[wan]全[quan]不[bu]受[shou]“路[lu]径[jing]依[yi]赖[lai](path dependence)”的[de]观[guan]念[nian]束[shu]缚[fu]。也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]说[shuo],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]可[ke]以[yi]相[xiang]当[dang]快[kuai]的[de]速[su]度[du]修[xiu]正[zheng]自[zi]己[ji]的[de]意[yi]见[jian],即[ji]使[shi]别[bie]人[ren]提[ti]醒[xing]他[ta]先[xian]前[qian]的[de]立[li]场[chang]如[ru]何[he],他[ta]一[yi]点[dian]也[ye]不[bu]会[hui]觉[jue]得[de]难[nan]堪[kan]。如[ru]果[guo]要[yao]问[wen]什[shi]么[me]事[shi]情[qing]改[gai]变[bian]了[liao]他[ta]的[de]心[xin]意[yi],他[ta]可[ke]能[nen]认[ren]为[wei]没[mei]有[you]必[bi]要[yao]回[hui]答[da]这[zhe]个[ge]问[wen]题[ti]。有[you]个[ge]叫[jiao]罗[luo]赞[zan](Jern Manuel Rozan)的[de]交[jiao]易[yi]员[yuan]在[zai]他[ta]的[de]一[yi]本[ben]自[zi]传[chuan]中[zhong]举[ju]证[zheng]:有[you]一[yi]个[ge]周[zhou]末[mo],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]在[zai]与[yu]罗[luo]赞[zan]打[da]网[wang]球[qiu]休[xiu]息[xi]时[shi]明[ming]确[que]表[biao]示[shi]非[fei]常[chang]看[kan]坏[huai]后[hou]市[shi],并[bing]且[qie]还[huai]说[shuo]了[liao]一[yi]连[lian]串[chuan]让[rang]罗[luo]赞[zan]听[ting]不[bu]懂[dong]的[de]道[dao]理[li]。仅[jin]仅[jin]几[ji]天[tian]后[hou],市[shi]场[chang]猛[meng]涨[zhang],屡[lv]创[chuang]新[xin]高[gao]。罗[luo]赞[zan]担[dan]心[xin]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]建[jian]立[li]的[de]头[tou]寸[cun]可[ke]能[nen]赔[pei]钱[qian],于[yu]是[shi]在[zai]下[xia]次[ci]打[da]球[qiu]问[wen]他[ta]是[shi]否[fu]有[you]所[suo]损[sun]失[shi]。不[bu]料[liao]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]却[que]说[shuo],“我[wo]们[men]大[da]赚[zhuan]了[liao]一[yi]票[piao]。我[wo]改[gai]变[bian]了[liao]主[zhu]意[yi],不[bu]但[dan]回[hui]补[bu]了[liao]空[kong]头[tou]头[tou]寸[cun],还[huai]建[jian]立[li]起[qi]很[hen]大[da]的[de]多[duo]头[tou]头[tou]寸[cun]。”还[huai]是[shi]这[zhe]个[ge]叫[jiao]罗[luo]赞[zan]的[de]人[ren],20世[shi]纪[ji]80年[nian]代[dai]末[mo],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]曾[zeng]给[gei]他[ta]2000万[wan]美[mei]元[yuan]去[qu]投[tou]机[ji],罗[luo]赞[zan]借[jie]此[ci]创[chuang]立[li]了[liao]一[yi]家[jia]交[jiao]易[yi]公[gong]司[si]。几[ji]天[tian]后[hou],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]到[dao]巴[ba]黎[li],他[ta]们[men]共[gong]进[jin]午[wu]餐[can]时[shi]聊[liao]到[dao]市[shi]场[chang],罗[luo]赞[zan]发[fa]现[xian]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]的[de]态[tai]度[du]变[bian]得[de]相[xiang]当[dang]冷[ling]淡[dan]。之[zhi]后[hou],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]把[ba]钱[qian]全[quan]部[bu]撤[che]回[hui],没[mei]做[zuo]任[ren]何[he]解[jie]释[shi]。相[xiang]对[dui]于[yu]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si],巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]在[zai]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]眼[yan]中[zhong]只[zhi]会[hui]“死[si]守[shou]”自[zi]己[ji]的[de]观[guan]念[nian]——安[an]全[quan]边[bian]际[ji]以[yi]及[ji]只[zhi]买[mai]便[bian]宜[yi]货[huo]——“直[zhi]到[dao]踏[ta]进[jin]坟[fen]墓[mu]”,也[ye]绝[jue]对[dui]不[bu]会[hui]以[yi]相[xiang]当[dang]快[kuai]的[de]速[su]度[du]不[bu]断[duan]修[xiu]正[zheng]自[zi]己[ji]的[de]意[yi]见[jian]。这[zhe]又[you]如[ru]何[he]得[de]到[dao]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]的[de]赞[zan]赏[shang]呢[ne]?假[jia]如[ru]有[you]一[yi]幅[fu]画[hua],当[dang]初[chu]是[shi]以[yi]2万[wan]美[mei]元[yuan]买[mai]进[jin]的[de],由[you]于[yu]艺[yi]术[shu]品[pin]市[shi]场[chang]欣[xin]欣[xin]向[xiang]荣[rong],现[xian]在[zai]这[zhe]幅[fu]画[hua]涨[zhang]到[dao]4万[wan]美[mei]元[yuan]。如[ru]果[guo]你[ni]没[mei]有[you]这[zhe]幅[fu]画[hua],你[ni]会[hui]依[yi]当[dang]前[qian]的[de]价[jia]格[ge]买[mai]进[jin]吗[ma]?买[mai]进[jin],就[jiu]是[shi]“路[lu]径[jing]依[yi]赖[lai]”,否[fu]则[ze]就[jiu]不[bu]是[shi]。巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]有[you]“路[lu]径[jing]依[yi]赖[lai]”吗[ma]?答[da]案[an]是[shi]否[fu]定[ding]的[de]。

    众[zhong]所[suo]周[zhou]知[zhi],塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]一[yi]直[zhi]专[zhuan]注[zhu]于[yu]研[yan]究[jiu]运[yun]气[qi]、不[bu]确[que]定[ding]性[xing]以[yi]及[ji]概[gai]率[lv]。因[yin]为[wei]他[ta]出[chu]版[ban]了[liao]《黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]:极[ji]小[xiao]概[gai]率[lv]事[shi]件[jian]的[de]影[ying]响[xiang]》一[yi]书[shu]而[er]声[sheng]名[ming]远[yuan]著[zhu]。塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]认[ren]为[wei]自[zi]己[ji]就[jiu]像[xiang]真[zhen]正[zheng]的[de]维[wei]多[duo]利[li]亚[ya]时[shi]代[dai]的[de]人[ren],是[shi]不[bu]折[zhe]不[bu]扣[kou]的[de]古[gu]典[dian]主[zhu]义[yi]者[zhe],而[er]且[qie]迄[qi]今[jin]仍[reng]然[ran]沉[chen]湎[mian]于[yu]古[gu]希[xi]腊[la]罗[luo]马[ma]的[de]文[wen]化[hua]之[zhi]中[zhong],他[ta]所[suo]崇[chong]拜[bai]的[de]英[ying]雄[xiong]大[da]多[duo]是[shi]文[wen]学[xue]人[ren]物[wu]颂元资产管理。作[zuo]为[wei]一[yi]个[ge]交[jiao]易[yi]员[yuan],他[ta]却[que]极[ji]力[li]避[bi]开[kai]媒[mei]体[ti]、电[dian]视[shi]和[he]报[bao]纸[zhi],不[bu]喜[xi]欢[huan]闲[xian]谈[tan],视[shi]闲[xian]谈[tan]如[ru]同[tong]瘟[wen]疫[yi]。与[yu]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]一[yi]样[yang]他[ta]也[ye]以[yi]身[shen]为[wei]交[jiao]易[yi]员[yuan]为[wei]耻[chi],只[zhi]希[xi]望[wang]把[ba]交[jiao]易[yi]当[dang]做[zuo]知[zhi]识[shi]生[sheng]活[huo]的[de]一[yi]个[ge]小[xiao]小[xiao]延[yan]伸[shen]。对[dui]有[you]钱[qian]人[ren]从[cong]不[bu]为[wei]其[qi]所[suo]动[dong],也[ye]从[cong]不[bu]以[yi]他[ta]们[men]为[wei]榜[bang]样[yang],这[zhe]是[shi]因[yin]为[wei]他[ta]认[ren]为[wei]迅[xun]速[su]致[zhi]富[fu]的[de]人[ren]经[jing]常[chang]带[dai]有[you]铜[tong]臭[chu]味[wei]。他[ta]的[de]基[ji]金[jin]公[gong]司[si]Empirica专[zhuan]门[men]不[bu]断[duan]地[di]购[gou]买[mai]低[di]价[jia]的[de]卖[mai]方[fang]期[qi]权[quan],而[er]这[zhe]些[xie]都[du]是[shi]别[bie]人[ren]看[kan]起[qi]来[lai]永[yong]无[wu]翻[fan]身[shen]之[zhi]日[ri]的[de]期[qi]权[quan],但[dan]是[shi]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]只[zhi]赌[du]它[ta]可[ke]能[nen]发[fa]生[sheng],并[bing]且[qie]喜[xi]欢[huan]偶[ou]尔[er]一[yi]次[ci]来[lai]个[ge]大[da]丰[feng]收[shou]。他[ta]没[mei]有[you]从[cong]事[shi]复[fu]杂[za]的[de]数[shu]学[xue]模[mo]型[xing]演[yan]算[suan],甚[shen]至[zhi]从[cong]不[bu]研[yan]究[jiu]基[ji]本[ben]面[mian]和[he]技[ji]术[shu]面[mian]的[de]问[wen]题[ti]。建[jian]仓[cang]之[zhi]后[hou]的[de]任[ren]务[wu]是[shi]出[chu]去[qu]滑[hua]雪[xue]、听[ting]音[yin]乐[le],耐[nai]心[xin]地[di]等[deng]待[dai]着[zhou]一[yi]次[ci]谁[shui]都[du]没[mei]有[you]意[yi]料[liao]到[dao]的[de]暴[bao]跌[die],来[lai]成[cheng]就[jiu]他[ta]的[de]财[cai]富[fu]梦[meng]想[xiang]。尤[you]其[qi]是[shi]2001年[nian]以[yi]来[lai],两[liang]次[ci]成[cheng]功[gong]的[de]交[jiao]易[yi]使[shi]得[de]他[ta]名[ming]声[sheng]大[da]噪[zao]。第[di]一[yi]次[ci]是[shi]2001年[nian],他[ta]在[zai]“911”之[zhi]前[qian]大[da]量[liang]买[mai]入[ru]行[xing]权[quan]价[jia]格[ge]很[hen]低[di]、无[wu颂元资产管理]价[jia]值[zhi]的[de]认[ren]沽[gu]权[quan]证[zheng],用[yong]一[yi]种[zhong]独[du]特[te]方[fang]式[shi]做[zuo]空[kong]美[mei]国[guo]股[gu]市[shi],直[zhi]到[dao]恐[kong]怖[bu]分[fen]子[zi]劫[jie]持[chi]飞[fei]机[ji]撞[zhuang]向[xiang]纽[niu]约[yue]世[shi]贸[mao]大[da]楼[lou]。结[jie]果[guo]是[shi]一[yi]夜[ye]暴[bao]富[fu]。第[di]二[er]次[ci]在[zai]美[mei]国[guo]次[ci]贷[dai]危[wei]机[ji]爆[bao]发[fa]之[zhi]前[qian],他[ta]又[you]先[xian]知[zhi]先[xian]觉[jue]重[zhong]仓[cang]做[zuo]空[kong],大[da]赚[zhuan]特[te]赚[zhuan]了[liao]一[yi]笔[bi]。业[ye]界[jie]称[chen]他[ta]是[shi]“像[xiang]买[mai]彩[cai]票[piao]一[yi]样[yang]的[de]做[zuo]股[gu]票[piao]”,并[bing]且[qie]他[ta]是[shi]每[mei]买[mai]必[bi]中[zhong],每[mei]中[zhong]必[bi]是[shi]头[tou]奖[jiang]。而[er]一[yi]般[ban]人[ren]买[mai]彩[cai]票[piao],大[da]都[du]只[zhi]是[shi]在[zai]做[zuo]贡[gong]献[xian]。据[ju]说[shuo]他[ta]有[you]一[yi]位[wei]身[shen]为[wei]数[shu]学[xue]分[fen]析[xi]大[da]师[shi]的[de]好[hao]朋[peng]友[you]来[lai]看[kan]他[ta],听[ting]说[shuo]了[liao]他[ta]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]组[zu]合[he]后[hou]大[da]为[wei]惊[jing]讶[ya]。他[ta]说[shuo]道[dao],“塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu],除[chu]非[fei]有[you]一[yi]架[jia]飞[fei]机[ji]撞[zhuang]进[jin]了[liao]我[wo]们[men]的[de]办[ban]公[gong]楼[lou],否[fu]则[ze]你[ni]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]简[jian]直[zhi]就[jiu]是[shi]慢[man]性[xing]自[zi]杀[sha]。”塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]当[dang]然[ran]用[yong]不[bu]着[zhou]去[qu]慢[man]性[xing]自[zi]杀[sha],因[yin]为[wei]他[ta]绝[jue]非[fei]赌[du]徒[tu],而[er]其[qi]成[cheng]功[gong]也[ye]绝[jue]非[fei]只[zhi]是[shi]运[yun]气[qi]。不[bu]过[guo],塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]目[mu]前[qian]已[yi]经[jing]功[gong]成[cheng]身[shen]退[tui],现[xian]在[zai]是[shi]每[mei]天[tian]靠[kao]写[xie]回[hui]忆[yi]录[lu]来[lai]打[da]发[fa]时[shi]光[guang]。

    塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]认[ren]为[wei]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]事[shi]件[jian]几[ji]乎[hu]能[nen]解[jie]释[shi]世[shi]界[jie]上[shang]的[de]所[suo]有[you]事[shi]情[qing],金[jin]融[rong]市[shi]场[chang]、商[shang]业[ye]、经[jing]济[ji],甚[shen]至[zhi]我[wo]们[men]的[de]生[sheng]活[huo]都[du]由[you]这[zhe]些[xie]不[bu]可[ke]预[yu]测[ce]的[de]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]主[zhu]导[dao]。塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]在[zai]回[hui]答[da]《麦[mai]肯[ken]锡[xi]季[ji]刊[kan]》的[de]专[zhuan]访[fang]时[shi]说[shuo],“我[wo]这[zhe]本[ben]《黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]》的[de]目[mu]的[de]就[jiu]是[shi]要[yao]提[ti]醒[xing]人[ren]们[men],应[ying]该[gai]考[kao]虑[lv]未[wei]知[zhi]事[shi]件[jian]、考[kao]虑[lv]到[dao]未[wei]知[zhi]事[shi]件[jian]发[fa]生[sheng]的[de]可[ke]能[nen]性[xing],尤[you]其[qi]是[shi]那[na]些[xie]您[nin]想[xiang]像[xiang]不[bu]到[dao],但[dan]又[you]会[hui]让[rang]您[nin]付[fu]出[chu]高[gao]昂[ang]代[dai]价[jia]的[de]事[shi]件[jian]。”由[you]于[yu]几[ji]乎[hu]不[bu]可[ke]能[nen]发[fa]生[sheng]的[de]灾[zai]难[nan]性[xing]事[shi]件[jian]所[suo]发[fa]生[sheng]的[de]几[ji]率[lv]实[shi]际[ji]上[shang]要[yao]比[bi]想[xiang]象[xiang]的[de]高[gao]得[de]多[duo],因[yin]此[ci]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]认[ren]为[wei],大[da]多[duo]数[shu]所[suo]谓[wei]成[cheng]功[gong]者[zhe]实[shi]际[ji]上[shang]只[zhi]是[shi]随[sui]机[ji]性[xing]运[yun]气[qi]的[de]结[jie]果[guo],当[dang]然[ran]也[ye]包[bao]括[kuo]了[liao]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]在[zai]内[na]。由[you]于[yu]全[quan]球[qiu]金[jin]融[rong]危[wei]机[ji]的[de]关[guan]系[xi],最[zui]近[jin]几[ji]年[nian],关[guan]注[zhu]“黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]”的[de]人[ren]似[si]乎[hu]越[yue]来[lai]越[yue]多[duo],有[you]些[xie]人[ren]甚[shen]至[zhi]到[dao]了[liao]如[ru]履[lv]薄[bo]冰[bing]、如[ru]临[lin]深[shen]渊[yuan]的[de]地[di]步[bu],以[yi]至[zhi]于[yu]完[wan]全[quan]丧[sang]失[shi]了[liao]主[zhu]动[dong]出[chu]击[ji]的[de]勇[yong]气[qi]。其[qi]实[shi]用[yong]不[bu]着[zhou]如[ru]此[ci]。塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]同[tong]时[shi]也[ye]指[zhi]出[chu],“第[di]一[yi],对[dui]于[yu]正[zheng]面[mian]的[de]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e],应[ying]当[dang]勇[yong]于[yu]去[qu]承[cheng]担[dan]最[zui]大[da]的[de]风[feng]险[xian],因[yin]为[wei]如[ru]果[guo]决[jue]策[ce]失[shi]误[wu],您[nin]所[suo]付[fu]出[chu]的[de]代[dai]价[jia]很[hen]小[xiao],但[dan]如[ru]果[guo]决[jue]策[ce]正[zheng]确[que],收[shou]益[yi]却[que]十[shi]分[fen]丰[feng]厚[hou]。第[di]二[er],尽[jin]量[liang]避[bi]免[mian]与[yu]负[fu]面[mian]的[de]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]扯[che]上[shang]关[guan]系[xi]。”在[zai]《随[sui]机[ji]致[zhi]富[fu]的[de]傻[sha]瓜[gua]》一[yi]书[shu]中[zhong],塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]针[zhen]对[dui]随[sui]机[ji]事[shi]件[jian]的[de]问[wen]题[ti],直[zhi]接[jie]建[jian]议[yi]人[ren]们[men]最[zui]好[hao]的[de]方[fang]法[fa]是[shi]“掌[zhang]控[kong]自[zi]己[ji]的[de]命[ming]运[yun]”。

    不[bu]过[guo]我[wo]认[ren]为[wei],巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]是[shi]掌[zhang]控[kong]自[zi]己[ji]命[ming]运[yun]最[zui]好[hao]的[de]人[ren]。因[yin]为[wei]过[guo]去[qu]“30年[nian]来[lai],没[mei]有[you]人[ren]能[nen]够[gou]正[zheng]确[que]地[di]预[yu]测[ce]到[dao]越[yue]战[zhan]会[hui]持[chi]续[xu]扩[kuo]大[da]、工[gong]资[zi]与[yu]价[jia]格[ge]管[guan]制[zhi]、两[liang]次[ci]的[de]石[shi]油[you]危[wei]机[ji]、总[zong]统[tong]的[de]辞[ci]职[zhi]下[xia]台[tai]以[yi]及[ji]苏[su]联[lian]的[de]解[jie]体[ti]、道[dao]指[zhi]在[zai]一[yi]天[tian]之[zhi]内[na]大[da]跌[die]508点[dian]或[huo]者[zhe]是[shi]国[guo]库[ku]券[quan]殖[zhi]利[li]率[lv]在[zai]2.8%与[yu]17.4%之[zhi]间[jian]巨[ju]幅[fu]波[bo]动[dong]。”不[bu]过[guo]确[que]实[shi]令[ling]人[ren]惊[jing]讶[ya]的[de]是[shi],这[zhe]些[xie]曾[zeng]经[jing]轰[hong]动[dong]一[yi]时[shi]的[de]重[zhong]大[da]事[shi]件[jian]却[que]从[cong]未[wei]让[rang]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]从[cong]本[ben]杰[jie]明[ming]格[ge]雷[lei]厄[e]姆[mu]那[na]里[li]学[xue]到[dao]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]哲[zhe]学[xue]——安[an]全[quan]边[bian]际[ji]“造[zao]成[cheng]丝[si]毫[hao]的[de]损[sun]伤[shang],也[ye]从[cong]来[lai]没[mei]有[you]让[rang]以[yi]合[he]理[li]的[de]价[jia]格[ge]买[mai]进[jin]优[you]良[liang]的[de]企[qi]业[ye]看[kan]起[qi]来[lai]有[you]任[ren]何[he]的[de]不[bu]妥[tuo],”巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]在[zai]1994年[nian]致[zhi]股[gu]东[dong]信[xin]中[zhong]写[xie]道[dao],“想[xiang]象[xiang]一[yi]下[xia],若[ruo]是[shi]我[wo]们[men]因[yin]为[wei]这[zhe]些[xie]莫[mo]名[ming]的[de]恐[kong]惧[ju]而[er]延[yan]迟[chi]或[huo]改[gai]变[bian]我[wo]们[men]运[yun]用[yong]资[zi]金[jin]的[de]态[tai]度[du],将[jiang]会[hui]使[shi]我[wo]们[men]付[fu]出[chu]多[duo]少[shao]的[de]代[dai]价[jia],事[shi]实[shi]上[shang],我[wo]们[men]通[tong]常[chang]都[du]是[shi]利[li]用[yong]某[mou]些[xie]历[li]史[shi]事[shi]件[jian]发[fa]生[sheng],悲[bei]观[guan]气[qi]氛[fen]到[dao]达[da]顶[ding]点[dian]时[shi],找[zhao]到[dao]最[zui]好[hao]的[de]进[jin]场[chang]机[ji]会[hui],恐[kong]惧[ju]虽[sui]然[ran]是[shi]盲[mang]从[cong]者[zhe]的[de]敌[di]人[ren],但[dan]却[que]是[shi]基[ji]本[ben]面[mian]信[xin]徒[tu]的[de]好[hao]朋[peng]友[you]。”在[zai]往[wang]后[hou]的[de]30年[nian]间[jian],一[yi]定[ding]还[huai]会[hui]有[you]一[yi]连[lian]串[chuan]令[ling]人[ren]震[zhen]惊[jing],也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]的[de]事[shi]件[jian]发[fa]生[sheng],那[na]又[you]怎[zen]么[me]样[yang]?“我[wo]们[men]不[bu]会[hui]妄[wang]想[xiang]要[yao]去[qu]预[yu]测[ce]它[ta]或[huo]是[shi]从[cong]中[zhong]获[huo]利[li],如[ru]果[guo]我[wo]们[men]还[huai]能[nen]够[gou]像[xiang]过[guo]去[qu]那[na]样[yang]找[zhao]到[dao]优[you]良[liang]的[de]企[qi]业[ye],那[na]么[me]长[chang]期[qi]而[er]言[yan],外[wai]在[zai]的[de]意[yi]外[wai]对[dui]我[wo]们[men]的[de]影[ying]响[xiang]实[shi]属[shu]有[you]限[xian]。”

    大[da]多[duo]数[shu]投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe]总[zong]是[shi]以[yi]相[xiang]当[dang]快[kuai]的[de]速[su]度[du]“修[xiu]正[zheng]”自[zi]己[ji]的[de]意[yi]见[jian]。他[ta]们[men]往[wang]往[wang]不[bu]是[shi]“死[si]守[shou]”得[de]太[tai]少[shao],而[er]是[shi]“修[xiu]正[zheng]”得[de]太[tai]多[duo];不[bu]是[shi]交[jiao]易[yi]得[de]太[tai]少[shao],而[er]是[shi]交[jiao]易[yi]得[de]太[tai]多[duo]。对[dui]比[bi]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]或[huo]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]与[yu]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]的[de]方[fang]法[fa],索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]或[huo]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]的[de]方[fang]法[fa]对[dui]于[yu]大[da]多[duo]数[shu]投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe]显[xian]然[ran]难[nan]以[yi]效[xiao]仿[fang],而[er]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]的[de]方[fang]法[fa]则[ze]可[ke]能[nen]更[geng]容[rong]易[yi]学[xue]习[xi]一[yi]些[xie]。尤[you]其[qi]是[shi]本[ben]杰[jie]明[ming]格[ge]雷[lei]厄[e]姆[mu]的[de]“安[an]全[quan]边[bian]际[ji]”,更[geng]是[shi]制[zhi]衡[heng]“黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]”的[de]有[you]效[xiao]武[wu]器[qi]。由[you]于[yu]塔[ta]勒[le]布[bu]总[zong]是[shi]用[yong]他[ta]的[de]黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]去[qu]解[jie]释[shi]许[xu]多[duo]事[shi]情[qing],同[tong]时[shi]他[ta]又[you]认[ren]为[wei]许[xu]多[duo]人[ren]的[de]致[zhi]富[fu]或[huo]者[zhe]成[cheng]名[m颂元资产管理ing]只[zhi]是[shi]凭[ping]着[zhou]运[yun]气[qi]。因[yin]此[ci],尽[jin]管[guan]巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]拥[yong]有[you]过[guo]去[qu]40多[duo]年[nian]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]纪[ji]录[lu]却[que]仍[reng]然[ran]不[bu]如[ru]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]那[na]样[yang]可[ke]靠[kao],尽[jin]管[guan]有[you]1984年[nian]在[zai]哥[ge]伦[lun]比[bi]亚[ya]大[da]学[xue]的[de]那[na]次[ci]著[zhu]名[ming]的[de]演[yan]讲[jiang]却[que]依[yi]然[ran]不[bu]能[nen]证[zheng]明[ming]什[shi]么[me]问[wen]题[ti],其[qi]中[zhong]的[de]关[guan]键[jian]在[zai]于[yu],与[yu]索[suo]罗[luo]斯[si]拥[yong]有[you]200万[wan]次[ci]的[de]交[jiao]易[yi]记[ji]录[lu]相[xiang]比[bi],巴[ba]菲[fei]特[te]只[zhi]打[da]“20个[ge]洞[dong]”的[de]做[zuo]法[fa]确[que]实[shi]无[wu]法[fa]证[zheng]明[ming]他[ta]的[de]成[cheng]功[gong]不[bu]是[shi]机[ji]缘[yuan]巧[qiao]合[he]的[de]结[jie]果[guo]。


    现在大家明白"[颂元资产管理]热议巴菲特的成功不可靠?"了吧?已经在上文为大家进行了详细的讲解,相信大家在看完之后一定能够快速学会哦

    转载请注明来自,本文标题:巴菲特的成功不可靠?
    本文地址:http://www.nueyes.cn/zaixianpeizi/6687.html

    标签: 颂元资产管理

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